Which national COVID strategy will produce prosperity?
The strategy the USA seems to be following is, "Let everyone get it as soon as possible; then the survivors can Get Back To Normal and make lots of money!" Whereas most countries (e.g. Canada) are opting to slow the spread and save lives, even if it means prolonging the Moratorium on Everything [except virtual meetings]. Assuming that an effective vaccine becomes avaiable in mid-to-late 2021, and ignoring the idiots who refuse to take it, which strategy is more likely to create "prosperity"?
Answers ( 3 )
First, the US doesn't have a strategy, it is playing a child's game of “oh no not me” denial and imaginary science magic. The administration is pretending it doesn't exist, it's denied and cut down testing, and encouraged the spread of the virus through that denial.
The strategy that works, has worked, is the effort that countries like New Zealand put in place. Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, acted swiftly to enact quarantine for anyone entering the country, and shortly after banned foreign travel into the country. And with calm reserve she talked to her people, told them they needed to help each other and protect everyone from the spread of this virus. She was calm, empathetic and didn't make the virus an enemy, but focused on protecting all the citizens, that as a team they could protect everyone.
They are I believe the greater success in the pandemic, and their economy will recover well - she didn't make enemies, she didn't dispute science, she took a firm and compassionate hand and pulled the country together. That she got everyone to work together, that she didn't create any scenario that pitted one side against another, she created a general sense of good will, and that will bring prosperity.
I think this all boils down to how long immunity from the disease will last. This article indicated that immunity has been shown to last at least three months, but maybe much longer. If the US is going for "herd immunity" by going full force into "I don't give a f**k" mode, then maybe we come out with stronger resistance than many of the countries that played it safe. But that would be floundering into absolute dumb luck through an idiotic policy that's likely to cost 300,000+ American lives lost.
At the end of the day, immunity is achieved through either contracting the disease and recovering, or building the immunity from the vaccines. If both are equally effective, then I think the result will be about the same. If disease-induced immunity is more effective, then perhaps the American populace as a whole does end up coming out better.
My guess? I'd say they end up being the same, and the evaluation criteria boils down to what was the least "expensive" in human life. In US vs. the World, the World wins!
While I, too, can admire Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand, NZ is nothing like the United States. You may as well be comparing the cultures and societies of New York City to Icelanders. It isn't that one culture is more aware or has better access to science or any of that; it is because one culture's history has inculcated the ideals of helping each other, the good of the many, equality and self reliance and the other has inculcated a bastardized version of Wild West justice, inequality based on whatever trait suits the purpose, self-centered selfish reliance and the protestant idea those who god has given much to must be better than you poor bastards. Those differences in cultures demonstrate why New Zealand could pull together, holding the virus at bay, and the US is still trying to tear itself apart while the virus sloshes back and forth like bathtub water through the country.
The US does have a strategy; our strategy is "It is what it is".
About a quarter of our adult population under age 65 believe "The Wuhan Flu" is fake, or a gambit for "Democrats" to control the population- or both. The CDC advisories were so messed up, different recommendations all the time: Don't wear masks, wear masks, don't wear this kind of mask, wear masks outdoors, don't bother with masks outdoors; this group of people are convinced "...it's going to disappear November 4th!" after Donald Trump is re-elected President because it wasn't really real to begin with.
A further fifteen or so percent aren't quite as sure of the above, but it does make sense now, doesn't it? And are willing to believe just enough to be able to say "I told you so."
The rest believe the virus is "real", highly contagious, deadly in certain circumstances, dangerous, and that we, as a country, should do something- but no one knows what. No one wants to shut down again- most folks realize that, necessary or not, shutting down the way we did, with no assistance to business or workers in place- helped kick our economy over the cliff. The problem is, if it wasn't necessary, we screwed the pooch for nothing; if it was necessary, well, now what? It's still here- how much more can we do, economy-wise? Millions out of work, with an estimated up to 40% of businesses which closed in the shut down last Spring not coming back, at all. What the hell are we going to do?
We are going to go into a depression, that's what. It's going to start with inflation as the Fed continues manipulating the currency to keep prices to manufacturers and distributors high enough to keep them afloat, and then, as winter comes on, the seasonal 'flu sweeps in and a highly contested election takes place without a swift and timely outcome, there will be protests and riots galore- people are going to take to the streets, take the law into their own hands in many areas, and our economy is going to finish its tumble and simply crash all the way down to crumbs held up by loans and hope.
But the rest of the planet is going to be right there with us. Usually, it is the US other countries turn to for assistance when their economies, through no fault of their own, get mired in the pothole of over-confident fiscal direction- economists of any and all stripes as a class are no better at seeing the future than Madame Tracy- who at least had common sense. But our own economy has been teetering on the edge of a catastrophic curve since we went another trillion dollars into deficit spending to try, once again, harder this time, another stab at trickle down economics with a tax cut for the wealthy. Didn't work this time, either. And the Fed has been holding back that pain with "prudent" fiscal policy that has infuriated our President, with the bottom line being- we got nowhere to go when the crash comes. We put the barricades in place, and there's only one lane open: Right over the cliff.
Along with everyone else.
So, the only way to "create prosperity" is to go through with the crash and burn, hope we get immunity one way or another, figure out some even better treatments, and then, along with the rest of the world, pick up the pieces and consider putting them back together in a way which preserves the best, and smoors the worst. All of us, the world over.
If this hasn't been an extinction event- and it hasn't- it's the teaser preview of what may be to come; shouldn't we learn from it?