Harsh Shastri

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  1. J Starr 4425 Accepted Answer

    Testing isn't the issue so much as distancing and sanitation.


    Look, you can test all you want, but the tests we have are not as accurate as we would like, (with both false negatives and positives), and, according to where the sample comes from, it might pick up virus particles, and it might not.  Samples taken from as close to the trachea (which would cause a nasty gag-reflex) are best, but most tests use nasal swabs or even cheek saliva. and the faster the test, the less valid the result may be.  Not to mention the expense of testing every employee every day-  who is going to pay for that- the restaurant or the patrons?

    And are we testing patrons, too?  No test, no food?  Or will it be like masks- we would like you to wear one, but if you prefer to act like a plague rat and infect everyone within a couple ten feet of you, well, have at it!

    Here's the deal: Even if a legitimate and valid vaccine makes its debut before Halloween, it only has to be 60% effective (meaning 40 out of 100 people vaccinated do not necessarily develop immunity) and we really do not know how long such immunity lasts (it is looking like two injections might provide a year's worth of immunity if it works, but that's a model done using cell cultures, not human being exposed in super-spreader events). What happens in a year? We don't yet know- other than CoVID-19 will still be around. 

    Herd immunity is a great idea, but isn't a miracle cure-  as often as not, the herd doesn't develop immunity (consider how long we have vaccinated people for all the influenza variants, yet the immunity only lasts a year), and there are many, many people who do not want to have this vaccine because politicization of this pandemic along with the propensity of a large swathe of adults believe conspiracy theories such as Bill Gates is part of the vaccine deal and wants to put a 5G tracker in your arm.  People BELIEVE THAT. Doesn't mean it is true, but this is the United States of America and no one can force you to get a vaccination if you do not want to- no matter what whacked out nonsense you believe. So about a quarter of our population won't get the vaccine, and so they will become carriers and spreaders. 


    Great.


    But, let's pretend everyone gets vaccinated AND the vaccines have a >80% success rate AND we reach a >80% chunk of the population having been vaccinated.  Contagion doesn't just stop.  It takes time for the actual immunity of the herd to build to the point the unvaccinated/non-immune are shielded. Until Corona-19 has tried all the ways it can to morph and evolve into something that infects even better, before there isn't enough of it left to infect people (basically, it gets starved to death), everyone without immunity is vulnerable- and this means every human, dog, cat, civet not immune-  on the planet.

    Those are some long, long odds.

    And these not-immune people can spread it to others who are not immune, or, if the virus manages to mutate and evolve into a "shape" which immune-system cells no longer recognize, it just starts all over.  It's a virus-  that's what they do.

    Which is why testing isn't the answer, control is the answer.  Control is masks when distancing isn't possible- especially indoors-  and scrupulous hygiene. 


    You can go to a restaurant- especially if it is practicing proper controls.  All staff should be wearing masks, all tables should be distanced, all of everything should be continually sanitized, and the ventilation system should be damned good.  There's no more of this waiter bending close and chummy, plastic-coated menus passed out to each and every then collected and passed out to the next each and every, a kid in the booth behind you leaning over and grinning.  You can go to a restaurant, just make sure everyone is being safe.

    Outdoor dining is best- easy for me to say, it won't get anywhere near cold until January, and then only for about 6 weeks. But many restaurants have patio seating and are installing those big propane space heaters.  If you must be seated inside, make sure no other tables are within ten to twelve feet of yours.  Make sure you can feel air movement- it will be subtle, but the air should not be completely still.  One restaurant here has placed small ion-type "air fresheners" on each table- a pricey solution, but not dumb.  Make sure other patrons are taking care of themselves and you- they should be wearing masks until seated, and keeping away from others not in their party. Make sure the restaurant is following practices which limit the possibility of germs being spread- staff masked, difficult to sanitize items exchanged for disposables, no overly large parties, at all.


    Look, remember when our government first politicized this, and many... well, Trump supporters came out with the fallacious argument "What about the flu?? People die from the flu and we never did all this stuff for the flu!  What about that?"   the proper answer was, "Maybe we should have been."

    Maybe we should have been, and likely we will from now on- at least for awhile.  Until CoVID-19 is eradicated or- and this is kind of neat- the virus becomes far less deadly as it spreads itself around.  ( http://www.worryproofmd.com/blog/2020/3/9/viral-survival )  Another thing to consider is lots of folks may already have partial immunity to CoVID-19 not because they had it and didn't know, but they have had other Corona-type viruses before.  Partial-  not full, and likely not enough to show up on an antibody test. I want to emphasize that MAY up there- this is just a theory as to why so many folks seems to exhibit no symptoms, at all- it's not really even being looked at as most researchers are after treatments and magic bullets.

    I know our Federal Administration tried to deprecate and say the President didn't need a mask because he was tested all the time- as were all visitors near him- but, as you can see, that didn't work.  It isn't testing that will help us- it is distancing that will continue to slow the spread.

    UTC 2020-10-20 03:57 PM 0 Comments

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